Iron Condor (SPY)    Comments?

Closed. Loss: -$22 Length: 2 Days.

Start: March 2nd,2016

SPY Chart

I placed an Iron Condor on the SPY ETF on the close today, betting that the market will be slightly bearish and trade in a narrow range until expiration. Expiry is this Friday, so two days of trading activity.

SPY Iron Condor Payoff

SPY Condor Payoff Grid

Using my probability estimator, I have a 76.85% chance of a win:

SPY Trade Probability

Closed Position: March 4th

Just missed out on this one. I ended up closing out the SPY position an hour before market close at a small loss of $22. The max loss was $71 and max profit $29. However, the ETF was looking like closing between the two call strikes. If allowed to expire, then I would have ended up being assigned short stock on the short call with the long call expiring worthless. I didn't want to take on a short position so needed to exit prior ro expiry. Too bad it was so close, just missed out there. Here is the final chart:

SPY Chart on close of trade

SPY Mar04 Iron Condor (comms $4.32)        
SPY Mar04 200 Call -1 0.48 0.58 -10
SPY Mar04 201 Call 1 0.2 0.07 -13
SPY Mar04 193 Put 1 0.06 0 -6
SPY Mar04 194 Put -1 0.07 0 7
Total   -0.29 -0.51 -22


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